The Signal And The Noise


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"One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

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Author by Nate Silver
Genre eBook Political Science
Read Book 544
ISBN Number 9781101595954

Signal To Noise


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A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

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Author by Neil Gaiman
Genre eBook Comics & Graphic Novels
Read Book 96
ISBN Number 9781630089658

Signal To Noise


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Magic will break your heart. Mexico City, 1988: Meche is fifteen, awkward, and obsessed with music. Her world revolves around her two misfit friends, Sebastian and Daniela, and a stack of records. Then Meche discovers how to turn music into magic, and things takes a turn for the strange... Mexico City, 2009: Meche returns home for her estranged father’s funeral. Her family are trouble enough, but when she runs into Sebastian, long-buried childhood memories resurface. What really happened back then – and is there any magic left?

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Author by Silvia Moreno-Garcia
Genre eBook Fiction
Read Book 272
ISBN Number 9781849978903

Signal To Noise


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Having cheated his way into the elite Academe of Pure and Applied Sciences, Jack Porter finds his chance for tenure threatened by a rival before receiving a message from the stars that entangles him in a web of deceit and betrayal

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Author by Eric S. Nylund
Genre eBook Fiction
Read Book 371
ISBN Number UVA:X004053765

Signal Recovery From Noise In Electronic Instrumentation Second Edition


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Covering all aspects of the subject, Signal Recovery from Noise in Electronic Instrumentation, Second Edition examines the interference involved with instruments that employ electronic techniques to measure physical quantities, including random fluctuations from thermal or background sources and systematic signal drift or offset. In the case of random noise, the book fully analyzes 1/f as well as white noise. It also discusses the theory and practice of baseline correction, low-pass filtering, multiple time averaging, and phase-sensitive detection. The author explores the best way of measuring the amplitude or the time of occurrence of a signal of known shape. New to this edition are an additional chapter, frequency measurement, and tutorial questions with answers to test understanding of the subject matter. This book will be indispensable to advanced electronics undergraduates, nonspecialist postgraduates using electronic instrumentation, and applied scientists.

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Author by T.H Wilmshurst
Genre eBook Technology & Engineering
Read Book 246
ISBN Number 1420050656

Signal And Noise


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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div

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Author by Brian Larkin
Genre eBook History
Read Book 313
ISBN Number 0822341085

Introduction To Random Signals And Noise


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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.

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Author by Wim C. Van Etten
Genre eBook Science
Read Book 270
ISBN Number 9780470024126

Noise


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The science commentator author of the best-selling Fuzzy Thinking presents a scientific history of noise for general readers, defining noise as an unaesthetic signal that occurs at every level of the universe that has made significant contributions in each period from the ice age to the information age. 20,000 first printing.

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Author by Bart Kosko
Genre eBook Science
Read Book 272
ISBN Number 9781440627156

Think Dsp


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If you understand basic mathematics and know how to program with Python, you’re ready to dive into signal processing. While most resources start with theory to teach this complex subject, this practical book introduces techniques by showing you how they’re applied in the real world. In the first chapter alone, you’ll be able to decompose a sound into its harmonics, modify the harmonics, and generate new sounds. Author Allen Downey explains techniques such as spectral decomposition, filtering, convolution, and the Fast Fourier Transform. This book also provides exercises and code examples to help you understand the material. You’ll explore: Periodic signals and their spectrums Harmonic structure of simple waveforms Chirps and other sounds whose spectrum changes over time Noise signals and natural sources of noise The autocorrelation function for estimating pitch The discrete cosine transform (DCT) for compression The Fast Fourier Transform for spectral analysis Relating operations in time to filters in the frequency domain Linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory Amplitude modulation (AM) used in radio Other books in this series include Think Stats and Think Bayes, also by Allen Downey.

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Author by Allen B. Downey
Genre eBook Technology & Engineering
Read Book 168
ISBN Number 9781491938515

Stopping The Noise In Your Head


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If you or someone you love suffers from excessive worry, anxiety, panic, OCD, or phobias, you know how crippling it can be. Of course, worry can be an important asset when it forces our attention on problem-solving. But anxious worrying can cause us to unnecessarily focus on a threat, to retreat and avoid, and to seek reassurance and safety—which is no way to foster a life of growth and excitement. In his fifth published book, Dr. Reid Wilson proposes a groundbreaking, paradoxical approach to overcoming anxiety, worry, OCD, panic, and phobias by moving away from comfort, confidence, and security and willingly moving toward uncertainty, distress and discomfort. Through the use of unconventional strategies, readers will learn how to confront anxiety head-on and step forward into the face of threat. Drawing on a range of sources—from firefighters and fitness instructors to Sir Isaac Newton and Muhammad Ali—Stopping the Noise in Your Head: The New Way to Overcome Anxiety and Worry demonstrates the importance of shifting our perspective and stepping toward our challenges in order to regain control of our lives.

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Author by Reid Wilson
Genre eBook Self-Help
Read Book 384
ISBN Number 9780757319075